Markets are correct to be convinced that the Fed funds rate will be raised tomorrow by +0.75%, the
fourth such hike since June, and will bring the upper bound Fed funds rate to 4.00%; Any deviation
from trend, six days before the elections, will be deemed political.
“Even though the risk of doing too much is a recession, the risk of not…” Read More »
A Fed pause, or a flattening of the trajectory of rate hikes, will undoubtedly change market
valuations. It seemed slightly political for Daly and Timiraos to throw a dovish comment out there on the eve of the blackout period, but that is our world.
“You can avoid reality, but you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding…” Read More »
I have an immense appreciation for the great Victor Hugo, who is, I would suggest, perhaps our
finest writer of nautical fiction, among others. I could not help but recall, while witnessing the
margin call on the British pension system, a piece of terrific writing by Master Hugo that describes
the tumult of a loose cannon as a supernatural beast.
“You can reason with a bulldog, astonish a bull, fascinate a boa, frighten a tiger…” Read More »